Pivot state
Pivot State As opposed to a swing state, pivot states are those heavily influencing
results for the nation rather than just the state. The pivot states
fallout from treating both the number of electoral votes as well as how tight
voting/polling is. Pivot Factor=electoral votes/%difference, applied to states
where the losing % is 45 or greater for the 2 major parties. States
may be included if by themselves or in combo with one other state the election
result would change (subject to the same 45% threshold) if the votes swung.
Besides Ohio and Florida, CO, MO, VA, NM, IA and NV meet the pair criteria for 2004.
Ohio and Florida by themselves meet the criteria for 2004. Using the above
yields for the past two U.S. Presidential elections in numeric order:
- 2004
- Wisconsin
- Pennsylvania
- Ohio*
- Iowa*
- Florida*
- Michigan
- New Mexico*
- New Hampshire
- Minnesota
- New Jersey
- Nevada*
- Oregon
- Washington
- Missouri*
- Virgina*
- Colorado*
2000FloridaNew MexicoWisconsinIowaOregonOhioPennsylvaniaMinnesotaMichiganMissouriNew HampshireTennesseeNevada
*meets single/pair criteria for 2004 (any single red state meets for 2000).
:Red==Republican Blue=Democrat
For example, from 2004 WI voting was 49.4%R, 49.8%D with 10 electoral votes.
Factor=10/abs(49.8-49.4)=25. Pivotal states generally have factor>1.39.
:[abs denotes absolute value]
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